The Falklands War and its Impact on Margaret

To what extent did victory in the Falklands War contribute to Thatcher’s success at the 1983 general election

The Falklands War of 1982 is generally considered to be a contributing factor to the increase of popularity of Prime Minister Thatcher and the Conservative Party prior to the 1983 general election and consequently, a cause of success for the party in the election (Norpoth, 1987). The ‘Falklands factor’ argument has been used to explain the victory of Mrs Thatcher and the Conservative Party in the 1983 general election, although it has been considered to be overestimated as a contributing factor to the results of the elections of 1983 (Sanders, 1991). Similar findings are presented by Norpoth (1987). Therefore, there is some question on how far the war contributed to the success of Mrs Thatcher to win the election. If you are looking for business dissertation help, understanding historical events such as the Falklands War can provide valuable insights into political strategies and their impact on electoral results.

When the Falklands were invaded by the Argentinians, not all British MPs supported military action in response, which led to some delay in action (Sharp, 2016; Bruni, 2018 ). The initial indecisiveness of the government after Argentina took control of the Falkland Islands may suggest that contrary to the commonly accepted notion that the majority of the British public had been supportive of the war, there was a significant section of the opinion that did not support the action or did not think that British continued control over the islands was legitimate. Although the government took decisive action eventually, the initial hesitation or indecisiveness suggests that there may be concerns of how far the British public would support such an action. Nevertheless, the results of the 1983 elections belie the importance of the electorate’s disapproval of the Falklands elections. Considering this point, a pertinent question is raised as to how far the public supported the Falklands war and showed this support in the 1983 elections. In other words, can the Falklands Islands War be said to be the single decisive factor for Mrs Thatcher’s victory in the election or were there other as or more significant factors involved? The answer to this question may also help analyse the extent to which the Falklands war helped to sustain an electoral victory for the Conservative government in 1983 general election. Therefore, there are two principal lines of inquiry in this essay – first, the effect of Falklands war; and second, the other factors that may have contributed to the popularity of the Conservative government. These factors could be support for economic policies. However, as this essay will show, there was no great support for the economic policies of the Thatcher government at the time and indeed there was much concern about unemployment, which should have affected the Conservative Party negatively but did not during the elections (Bruni, 2018 ). Therefore, the only important factor that seems to have played a role in the decisive victory of the Conservative Party seems to be the Falklands Factor (Bruni, 2018 ; Crewe, 1985).

Generally, electoral successes for incumbent governments are put to the economic successes of the government (Sanders, 1991). However, the victory of Mrs Thatcher in the 1983 general elections has been considered to be not due to the economic argument because the Conservative government was not considered to have much economic successes prior to the war and Britain was in the midst of recession at this time (Norpoth,, 1991). On the other hand, it has been argued that macroeconomic factors were at the root of the success of the Thatcher government as the government had taken decisions with macroeconomic implications which led to the success it enjoyed in the 1983 elections (Sanders, Ward, Marsh, & Fletcher, 1987). According to this view point, Thatcher government’s victory in the 1983 elections are not just attributable to the Falklands war but also the economic decisions of the Thatcher government. This argument seeks to diminish the significance of the ‘Falklands Factor’ in explaining the results of the 1983 elections. An argument is also made with relevance to the effect of the Falklands War on the way British public perceived their leaders of the time and how it impacted the electorate in 1983. This argument is made by Bruni (2018) who writes that the actions of Mrs Thatcher compared with the leaders of the other parties came across as being more decisive and effective to the electorate and they responded to these perceptions of Mrs Thatcher as a strong leader in the 1983 elections. Bruni (2018) writes that “beyond any differences among the various interpretations, there is substantial agreement that personal appraisal of the leaders of the three major parties running in the 1983 elections was among the main motivations – if not the main motivation – conditioning the choice of the electorate, that resembled how appreciation for Margaret Thatcher’s leadership abilities were linked to her conduct during the crisis with Argentina” (p.). The same argument is also made by Crewe (1985), whose study revealed that among some of the major concerns for the British electorate in 1983 were high unemployment, which the majority of the public believed that the Thatcher government could not have addressed; nevertheless, they voted for the Conservative government. Crewe (1985) argues that the results of the 1983 elections indicate that the voters were affected by the Falklands Factor and voted for the Conservative government even when they may not have agreed with the economic policies of the government.

Another factor that may be pertinent in this discussion is the extent of popular support for the Falklands war in Britain at the time. Indeed, on the issue of Falkland Islands, the British public opinion was divided because there was a section of the public that believed that the British forces should not be occupying distant islands as a remnant of colonial policy, while another sizeable section of the public believed that even if the legitimacy of the British occupation of the Falkland Islands was doubtful, Argentinians should not be allowed to oust the British forces (Sharp, 2016). This divided opinion may explain the delayed response to the invasion of the Falklands by the British government. The Falklands war was initiated by Argentina when it invaded the islands on 2 April 1982 and the dependency of South Georgia the following day (Sharp, 2016). Initially, the British forces at the two locations were overwhelmed and the Argentinians took over the Falkland Islands. It took a few days for the British to demand that the Argentinians hand back the Falkland Islands to them (Sharp, 2016, p. 187). The division in the British public as to what action ought to be taken in the Falklands can be seen from the way Labour MPs reacted to the setting up of the task force by the Thatcher government for taking military action in the Falklands; Labour MPs were divided as many were in opposition to the task force expedition, and some were in acceptance of deployment of force in the Southern Atlantic as an inevitable action but not clear on the right quantity of force that was to be used by the British in the Falklands (Bruni, 2018 ). These doubts about the possible military action in the Falklands also extended to some MPs within the Conservative party itself as some MPs expressed doubt as to whether military action was advisable (Bruni, 2018 ). These facts about how the Labour Party MPs and some Conservative Party MPs responded to the war reflect on the possible similar reactions within the larger British public, which may not have been completely supportive of the war in Falklands. Nevertheless, the British public voted for the Thatcher government again.

The effect of the Falklands War on the domestic British politics has been described as “abrupt-permanent”, as the government popularity seems to have jumped in the two months of April and May 1982 when the war took place, and the popularity of the government persisted up to the period of the 1983 election (Sanders, 1991, p. 163). Different studies have explained the effects of the war for the increase of the popularity of the Thatcher government in quantitative terms. Empirical studies have used quantitative methods to test the effect of the Falklands War on the results of the 1983 general election. One of the prominent studies is by Norputh (1987) which posits a ‘gradual-temporary’ model to test the impact of the Falklands War. Norputh (1987) found that although there was a surge of popularity for the Conservative government in the three months of the war, it was followed by a slow decline so that the extent to which the war contributed to the success of Mrs Thatcher's gains was approximately six points in the election. Another quantitative study by Clark, Stewart and Zuk (1986) employed macroeconomic measures in their models (inflation and unemployment stattistics) and found that that Falkland Islands War had a significant impact of increasing the popularity of the Thatcher government by at least 7 percentage points. The studies by Norputh (1987) and Clark, Stewart and Zuk (1986) provide conservative estimates of how much the Falklands War impacted the results of the 1983 elections by increasing the popularity of the Thatcher government. A higher estimate is provided in another study by Dunleavy and Husbands (1985), which found that the effect of the Falklands War was to increase the popularity of the Thatcher government by at least 16 percentage points.

At the very least, these studies suggest that there was an increase in the popularity of the Thatcher government, although they do not agree on the extent of that effect. Even the conservative estimates of Norputh (1987) and Clark, Stewart and Zuk (1986) of 6 and 7 percentage points respectively, may be considered to be a significant impact on the results of the 1983 election. Therefore, it can be concluded at this point that the Falklands war did have some effect on the 1983 general election results, as indicated by quantitative research. Even if the effect is accepted at a conservative estimate of 7 to 8 percentage points, the effect is significant. So far, the essay has considered quantitative research studies for understanding the extent of the effect of the Falklands War in British politics. In the final part of the essay, the essay considers some qualitative studies that were also published related to the Falklands Factor.

Bruni (2018) writes that the Falklands War provided Mrs Thatcher with an opportunity to show to the British public the nature of her leadership and this had significant consequences in the British politics post the Falklands War. The Falklands invasion by the Argentine forces was seen by the British opposition as a humiliating event, but Mrs Thatcher took early action and steps in making reassurances to the British public in her House of Commons speech soon after that she had already set up a task force for South Atlantic action, and that she intended to restore the British administration of the Falklands (Bruni, 2018 ). These actions of the Thatcher government have been seen as decisive and reflective of her leadership style (Bruni, 2018 ). Another argument is made about the impact of the Falklands action for the improvement of the morale of the British public as they may have seen the outcomes of the action as indicative of what a strong government can do when provoked into action; this also led to more positive view on whether Mrs Thatcher would be able to address unemployment (Jenkins, 1987). The Falklands War also helped Mrs Thatcher to establish her leadership style as superior as compared to the leaders of the opposition parties, which helped the Conservative Party in the 1983 elections as people saw Mrs Thatcher more capable of addressing the important issues of the day, including economic problems and uneemployment (Hennessy, 2005).

To conclude, the Falklands War played an important role in winning popular support for the Conservative Party and Mrs Thatcher. As economy does not appear to have played a role in swaying the election of 1983 (there was unemployment and general doubt over Thatcher government’s ability to restore higher employment rates), it can only be agreed that Thatcher government’s action in the Falklands War showed the Prime Minister as a strong and decisive leader, which played an important role in how the British people voted in the 1983 general election.

Bibliography

Bruni, D. M. (2018 ). A leader at war : Margaret Thatcher and the Falklands crisis of 1982. Le Royaume-Uni et le monde, 20, 135-157.

Dunleavy, P., & Husbands, C. T. (1985). British democracy at the crossroads: voting and party competition in the 1980s. Taylor & Francis.

Hennessy, P. (2005). ‘War Cabinetry’: the political direction of the Falklands conflict. In S. Badsey, R. Havers, & M. Grove, The Falklands Conflict Twenty Years on. Lessons for the Future (pp. 131-146). London-New York: Frank Cass.

Jenkins, P. (1987). Mrs. Thatcher’s Revolution: the Ending of the Socialist Era. London: Cape.

Norpoth, H. (1987). The Falklands war and government popularity in Britain: Rally without consequence or surge without decline? Electoral Studies , 6(1), 3-16.

Norpoth, H. (1991). The popularity of the Thatcher government: A matter of war and economy. In H. Norpoth, M. S. Lewis-Beck, & J.-D. Lafay, Economics and politics: The calculus of support (pp. 141-60). Michigan: University of Michigan Press.

Sanders, D., Ward, H., Marsh, D., & Fletcher, T. (1987). Government popularity and the Falklands War: a reassessment. British Journal of Political Science , 281-313.

Sanders, D. (1991). Popularity of the Thatcher Government: A Contrary View. In H. Norpoth, M. S. Lewis-Beck, & J.-D. Lafay, Economics and politics: The calculus of support (p. 161). Michigan: University of Michigan Press.

Sharp, P. (2016). Thatcher's diplomacy: the revival of British foreign policy. Springer.

Crewe, I. (1985). How to Win a Landslide without Really Trying: Why the Conservatives Won in 1983. In A. Ranney, Britain at the Polls 1983: A Study of the General Election. American Enterprise Institute Book.

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