Turkey’s Energy Crisis Overview

Introduction

Energy is an imperative source of human life standard as well as a nation’s economy. Nonetheless, the main issue is maintaining a supply in a progressive and dependable manner. In the last number of decades, the most popular type of energy is electricity. The reason is that it has been identified to be easy to conduct, apply and transform to other forms of energies. The only detriment is that it cannot be stored, but still there are researches ongoing on how to store electricity in an economical manner just like fuel cells and hydrogen energy. The energy crisis in Turkey has been adversely felt recently due to high consumptions rate and minimal application of alternative sources of energy. Its high dependability of fossil fuels to meet the growing demands is subjecting the nation into energy insecurity, the country’s environmental deterioration, as well as global climate change in heightening proportions.

The installed power generation capacity of the country is at least 40.980 MW in the first quarter of the year 2007. Kiliç (2006), depict that the country is a developing state; the electricity consumption is also increasing at an alarming rate. In the previous year of 2006, the consumption of energy was recorded to have increased at a margin of 8.3% from the previous years reading. Specifically, when the country was undergoing an economic surge in the 1980s, energy supply and consumption was 20.397 GWh. In the 1990s, Evrendilek and Ertekin (2003) affirm that energy consumption increased to 46.821 GWh and by the time it was 2007, the supply and consumption read at 183.500 GWh. At this time, the consumption rate per individual in Turkey was reading at 2046 KWh/yr., while at an industrial level of supply and consumption was 9000 KWh/Yr.

Domestic Energy Production Levels

Domestic sources of such as lignite and hard coal are significantly applied for generation of electricity in Turkey. According to Capik, Kolayli and Yılmaz (2013), coal was identified to be a cheap and efficient energy source in the country. However, the country possesses asphaltite and peat reserves, but lignite constitutes the largest portion of the entire coal reserves. Large amounts of hard coal exist in the basin in Zonguldak Province situated on the Western Black Sea region, with other small basin found in Kemer (Antalya) and Hazro (Diyarbakir). The hard coal constitutes a reserve of 1.3 billion tons as Lynch (2003), describes it, being excavated from at least five districts in Zonguldak Province. The distribution among the five districts includes 168 million tons in Kozlu, 419 million tons in Caradon, 309 million tons in Uzulmez, 36 million tons in Armutcuk and 409 million tons in Amasra.

The hard coal deposits are undertaken by three distinct companies; the Turkish Coal Enterprise (TKI), Turkish Hard Coal Enterprise (TTK) and the Electricity Generation Company (EUAS). However, Capik et al. (2013) and Lynch (2003), the Turkish Coal Enterprise (TTK) is authorized by the Turkish government for hard coal production, processing, and distribution, and more than half of the lignite reserves are being produced by the Turkish Coal Enterprise (TKI) with the remaining lignite being exploited by the Electricity Generation Company (EUAS), which is a private company.

Deposits of lignite in Turkey have been identified to spread across the country, with the most significant reserves located in Mugla Soam, Sivas, Afsin Elbistan, Beypazari, Tuncbilik, and Seyitmer regions according to Lynch (2003). Capik et al. (2013), claim that Afsin Elbistan contains about 40% of lignite, southeast of the country. About 8.07 billion tons of lignite reserves considered to be proven to exist with an estimate of 12.4 billion tons possible reserves after recent exploration by the TKI Company. The country is said to possess a 2% of the globe’s reserves and 8% production in the world.

Capik et al. (2013), assert that the country’s identified natural gas fields are situated in South East Anatolia regions and Thrace. Specifically, the fields are at Degirmenkoy, Umurca, Hayrabolu, Karacali, Karacaoglan Camurlu and tekirdag. These natural gas reserves include those that are proven, probable and possible amounting to 23 cubic meters (bcm), with a production of 11.3 bcm and 6.2 bcm of natural gas yet to be recovered, hopefully, found in Middle Anatolia, West Black Sea, and Marmara.

Imported Energy

Currently, Turkey is undergoing immense issues besides the currency crisis, and that is measures to undertake to settle increasing debts of energy dependency on imported natural gas and oil to produce enough energy across the state. The country imports a vast quantity of fuel, and according to Kiliç (2006), its currency; lira that has devalued, makes it even hard for the country to settle payments for such imports. The nation’s economy in hastily losing its hard currency to meet the cost of imported energy at the same time meet other imported needs. At the moment, according to Evrendilek and Ertekin (2003), oil that is imported is six percent more costly, with its price tag rising above sixty percent for the Turkish since the plunge in the country’s currency against the United States Dollar. This has led to the Turkish government to heighten a distinctive consumption tax on diesel and gasoline, a route that they believe will assist in mitigating the budget deficit existing due to energy expenses.

Evrendilek and Ertekin (2003), argues that energy in Turkey makes up more than two-thirds of the country’s huge recent-account paucity, when measured and compared to the rest of the globe. It accounts for 5.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP), an issue that has kept away investors, a large miasma of Turkey’s emerging market.

Turkey has recorded at least 25.8 million tons of crude oil from Iran and Russia as from mid of the last year 2017 despite the sanction the United States put on Iran targeting energy sector according to Kiliç (2006) and Lynch (2003). From Russia, the country has imported 55.43% of the total crude oil imported into the country. The country also imported 20% of the total petroleum through pipelines from neighboring states. Basically, the country has recorded at least 10 billion cubic meters of gas from Iran before sanctions.

Kiliç (2006) asserts that the country is surrounded by major gas exporting nations such as Iran in the Middle East, Russia in the North and others in Central Asia; it creates another factor unto which Turkey becomes a major gas importer and consumer. The country has also diversified its importation of energy by signing deals with states such an Iraq, Egypt, Azerbaijan as well as Turkmenistan. While there are three-quarter of natural gas I the world are situated in Iran, Russia, and Qatar by accounting at least 55% of the gas reserves, they have benefited greatly from Turkish large importation due to an excessive application in the country at domestic level.

There have been at least eight purchase contracts Turkey has signed with Turkmenistan and Russia that had a duration of thirty years, with Russia providing the greatest share of the natural oil supplying the country via three pipelines that account for 44% or 30 bcm as found out by Kiliç (2006). The three pipelines routes that are a Blue stream that apply the two parallel pipelines laid across the Black Sea and the other two are the West Gas and Turisgaz. While the Russian pipelines are supplying 16 bcm or 24% of natural gas to Turkey, Iran accounts for 10 bcm or 15% and another major pipeline originate from Azerbaijan via Georgia, supplying a capacity of 6.6 bcm. The country is still considering increasing its importation of natural gas and has signed contracts with Iraq that will provide the country with the considerable amount of the resource.

Energy to meet the Demand of Growing Populous and Economy

For decades, Turkey has been briskly growing nation, with an average five percent since 1983 of a gross national product of the state. Balat (2009) identifies that the demand for energy has also been immensely rising due to increased population and economic growth and development. As a result, the nation has been facing an economic challenge due to heightened demands for energy has been growing due to minimal self-sufficiency rate in domestic energy source cannot sustain its rapid growth. The domestic energy production totals to only 28% of the general demand of the primary energy in the year 2009.

Two-thirds of Turkey’s significant account defalcation, according to Kiliç (2006), when compared to how the rest of the world consumes energy, amounts to 5.5% of the GDP. It is an issue that affects other states such as South Africa and India, which are also under pressure from investors afraid of infection of the emerging markets as researched by Balat (2009). The rapid growth of the economy and population within Turkey over the last two decades has seen the energy sector transforming rapidly than any other nation in the world. Lynch (2003), claim that there has been an eight percent of an increase in electricity generation across the country and a ninety percent growth of the renewable energy generation, however, there has been a seven percent annual increase in demand of energy since the year 1990. It suggests that the country has to put more efforts in making sure that additional source of energy is produced in mitigating the ever increasing economy and population.

Bölük and Koc (2011), depict that Turkey has a population of approximately 70 million all spread across 80 provinces known as iller in the 14 regions, with the capital city known as Ankara, situate in the North Central section of the country with a population of 3.4 million. Other cities such as Istanbul and Izmir have a population of approximately 9.3 million and 2.4 million consecutively both located on the eastern section of Turkey. The economy has indicated a GDP of 443 billion US dollars as of 2001 according to Onel, Aycicek and Ozcira (2009), indicating purchasing power parity. The country has managed to keep up with the population and economic growth due to existing energy at domestic and largely at importation through stocking that is exhaustible, a flow which are inexhaustible and the exhaustible energy that is leveraged to resemble renewable source of energy.

It has been recorded and identified by Bölük and Koc (2011), that Turkey consumes an approximately of 85.83 MToe of energy which is the 41% largest percentage of oil. Lignite and hard coal combined account for 26.9% and natural gas recording a 20% consumption to meet the needs of the increasing population and economy. With the economy tanked the 14th in the world, Onel, Aycicek and Ozcira (2009), identifies that there has been increase in demand for production of energy in the country, with more focused having relied on importation, however, the Turkish policy on energy have concentrated on making sure that the supply of energy produced domestically and imported is supplied in a reliable manner and amply in time, covered by the economic well as clean terms, in a method unto which sponsor and conform to the target development and social growth.

Russia-Turkey Geopolitics

Political Geography

Turkey

Turkish never originated at the crossroads of Asia and Europe according to Bilgin (2007). They are a native of what is now known as the Post-Soviet Central Asia, voyaging to the Marmara Sea, south of the coast during the period when there was an invasion by the Mongol of Europe and the Middle East. This was the year 1453 according to Stratfor. (2010), when the Turks secured the seas of Marmara, they were among the first individuals who fought over the control of the region. Over time the Turks transformed themselves into a culture that could be a world’s power.

The new Turkey bestrides the land scaffold connecting Southeastern Europe with Southwestern Asia. Recent geographical analysis as identified by Stratfor. (2010), depict that the territory of Turkey lies on the Asia division of the sunder, resting on the whole of the Anatolian Plateau, which is a thick, arid and craggy peninsula dividing the Black and the Mediterranean seas. Contemporary Turkey, with its Anatolian and Asiatic insistence, is a malformation asserts Bilgin (2007). The country was never a mountain state, and the highland of Anatolia is the recent lands that were occupied by the Turks.

Turks established itself with a massive population living around the black sea, currently the city of Istanbul. Stratfor. (2010), argues that the access of the warm water provided navigation from Europe, Asia, and South of Russia. There is two strait unto which Turkey controls, one is the Bosphorus Strait that accesses the Mediterranean Sea and the Dardanelles Strait.

The two straits belong to the Turkish Sovereignty and they were guaranteed to be international navigation at the time of peace in the 1936 Montreux Agreement. According to Khanfah (2015), Turkey has the power to delay or halt navigation of any vessel since it is under the pretext of managing shipping navigation along the two Straits, both during commercial and times of conflicts.

Russia

The geography of Russia expands towards the European and Asian continents, and it is the reason why the nation feels that it is constantly under threat. The expansive border is the reasons for the attitudes of the Russia country, explaining its reflexes, wars, and ambitions. The geography is one of the biggest in the world undergoing a number of issues including harsh environments in the east of massive uninhabited fields. Khanfah (2015) affirms that the borders of the nation are hard to control and protect, two significant issues constantly comprise the imperative Russian intricate. The first issue is its strategic liability to the west due to lack of natural geographical barriers proficient in hindering invading artilleries from the west. The second issue is the Old Russian vision of arriving at warm sea and oceanic waters of the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.

International Relations and Diplomacy in Recent History

In the construction of the Turkish foreign policy, the state of Turkey was inspired and guided by the ‘strictness of wisdom’, which they learned over centuries through experience. Over time, the glory of triumph as well as the sorrows of wars, Acikalin (1947), claim that Turkish learned the infinite independence is the only attainable way of life, that regional endeavors and aspirations, whatever the reason they might have as well as their forms, all are aspects aggravating to an entrenched order, that is peace. Peace is perceived to be the only source of prosperity and welfare. These principles have led the country in a foundation of the Turkish foreign policy specifically between them and Russia.

In the year 1925, according to Acikalin (1947), the treaty of Non- Aggression with Soviet Russia was created on commercial and diplomatic relations with which they had a long relationship since the year 1921. After being elected as a member of the League of Nations, which was collaboration with other states across the globe to maintain peace and love. The treat not only aggregated the Treaty of Friendship of the year 1921 but also forged new alliances with the neighboring states that had proclaimed the condemnation of the imperialism of Tsarist.

In the year 1934, according to Acikalin (1947), a treaty known as the Balkan Pact was exhilarated by the stout-heartedness of the League of Nations as well as the Brand-Kellogg Covenant, which was a regional agreement created as an escutcheon against the belligerence in the Balkans. The witnesses jointly made certain of the security of their Balkan frontiers. However, there were no obligations were necessary upon the agreement in the occurrence of any of the nations participated in the war as a result of pugnacity by a nation that is not a member of the Balkan Power, unless the state of Bulgaria decided to conjugate with that Power then, or later.

However, the Turkish international relationship arena is adjusting, and for decades, the principles of the country have envisioned a progressive change towards the west, where according to Baykal (2010), the west have hugely appreciated and gratified, its commitment to obligate with international institutions such as the United Nations (UN), the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) not leaving out the European Union that had persisted on the joining of Turkey. These changes as identified by Katehon. (2017), have merged out of contemporary concepts in the officeholder party from left-wing Kemalist to center-right populist.

Turkey is particularly gifted because of its locality in geopolitical areas of influence, specifically its influence of the Bosphorus as well as its historical bequest of the Ottoman Empire according to Baykal (2010),. Its foreign policy has been perceived unbalanced, with aggrandizement on connections with the US, Western Europe, disregarding Turkey’s commitments with states from the Middle East.

Trade/Exchange between Turkey and Russia

Irrespective of recent accusation and the cold war between Turkey and Russia, such as Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane close to the Syrian border, with claims that it had violated Turkey’s airspace as accrued by Stonestreet and Lawson (2015), the two nations have had long trade relations and co-existence. The two states have learned to depend on each other by trading on commodities and services that the two states have learned to overlook the conflicts that emerge now and then.

Along Turkey’s seaside of the Black Sea, several resorts are among the most famous tourist destinations for so many Russians. This is to claim that according to economic trends in Turkey as identified by Stonestreet and Lawson (2015),, Russia has emerged to second largest after Germany in sourcing tourists into the Turkish Coastline of the Black Sea. In recent Russia-Syria Conflicts and putting Turkey into the middle of it, have led to Turkey to advice Russian not to visit their country and Russia on the other end through the Russian Tourism agency recommending suspension of package holiday sales to Turkey. However, the popularity of tourism in Turkey and its immense attractiveness, Turkey and Russia have still maintained a visa-free travel where in the year 2014 to 2015, there have been at least 7.7 million Russians and Russian tourist visited Turkey.

While Russian has banned the importation of foods from the West that was launched in the year 2014 according to Stonestreet and Lawson (2015), Turkish food exports have not been perturbed. In that same year when the rest of Western imports were being banned in Moscow, Turkey’s exports, specifically food and textiles that worth approximately 6 billion US dollars were imported in Russia.

Turkey has been the second biggest after Germany, the buyer of the Russian natural gas. It is to say that Russia considers Turkey their main and largest buyer of natural gas, with an annual requirement of 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of 50 (bcm) from Russia. In addition, Turkey has largely imported oil and oil products from Russia, wherein in 2013, according to the Russian embassy in Turkey, Stonestreet and Lawson (2015) argues that it claimed that Russia is the fourth biggest supplier. Needless to say, Russia exports at least 4.1 million tons of wheat to Turkey and Egypt. Finally, Turkey is the largest buyer of the Russian steel semi-finished goods,

Difficulties

NATO

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Turkey according to Aybet (2012) have had a lasting accord since Ankara accompanied the Alliance back in the year 1952. Over time, the security challenges for both NATO and Turkey have adjusted, with the role of Turkey within the alliance and how the state anticipated the interests of being an affiliate of NATO in terms of its personal federal security have also undergone through adjustment.

Aybet (2012), analyses the progressive connection of Turkey and NATO and indicates to constitute a three phases mode of relationship. The first phase entails a period of assertive composite defense for NATO and Turkey. The following phase would be the heightened attention on composite security; jointly shared by NATO and Turkey, Finally, the last phase would be Turkey’s commitment as a diplomatic partner for NATO in regional catastrophe handling.

The difficulties that Turkey is having with NATO is that while NATO is prioritizing on global partnership and expecting members not to partner with non-members, Turkey is recently forging a regional partnership of its own with Russia, China, and the Arab world as well as Central Asia according to studies by Aybet (2012). All these nations are non-members of NATO with far different democracies. For that reason, Turkey is shifting its interest by focusing on regional interest rather than the general NATO’s agenda of normative values and preservation of global stability through air, space, cyberspace, and sea.

S-400 Being Sold

Late last year, Scimia (2018), identifies that Turkey has been trying to acquire Russia’s S-400 long-range air and missile defense system. The arrival to the deal has been under several controversial pressures from the NATO, the US, and Russia concerning the acquisition of the system. Turkey was trying to ease its allies concerns over where its loyalties lie. For instance, US claimed that the system is rigged and has the capability to pose issues of interoperability once it is integrated into the Atlantic alliance’s defense shield.

Further, the deal was worsened when the US Congress halted the sale of the F-35 fighter jet to Turkey even after a Turkish pilot has been in training in Arizona, the USA for a year. They based they halting on the National Defense Authorization Act as well as the State and Foreign Operation bill for the year 2019. There were also claims according to Scimia (2018), that Turkey had interest in the Syrian Conflicts where the Washington, USA claimed that the country supported the Kurdish People’s Protection Force (YPG), worsening the deal, Turkey had with Russia over the S-400 missile and defense system. However, late last year, the deal was finalized under intense heat from NATO and the USA due to a failure of backing down from the deal of acquiring the system.

Difficulties with Ukraine

The crisis in Ukraine has been blamed on Russia specifically after forces backing Russia opened fire on Ukrainian police officers in the East of Ukraine. Theresa (2014) claims that since the incident, NATO is winding down across Europe for its intentions to assure its allies. The US, on the other hand, has been calling the NATO allies to realize that Russia is pulling the strings and causing unrest in Ukraine. For that matter, these allegations against Russia were focused on Turkey, which is a major ally of Russia since 1952 and has been quiet on the matter, and at the same time, a member of the NATO. These issues have led Turkey to be perceived as an enemy by Ukraine for failing to choose a side.

Difficulties with Syria

The issues between Turkey and Syria according to Marcus (2018) lie within the Syria’s northern region of Afrin. The Kurdish who is backed by the US government in the fight against the Islamic State in the south of Syria preoccupies the region. The main controversy is the threat that the Turkish government perceive to take place in the south of the border of Turkey, and claim to not tolerate any form of threat originating from the Kurdish, and further claim to apply any form of force to eliminate it.

Difficulties with Cyprus

The issues that lie between Turkey and Cyprus according to Jacovides (2011), are the claims that Turkey even after several Security Council resolutions since the year 1974 of the Cyprus invasion, there are at least forty thousand Turkish troops occupying that state. Turkey is a member of United Nations has been accused of failing to comply with the legal obligations to Cyprus, and thus interferes with Cyprus rights in its restricted commercial area of marine arbitration.

Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant

Purpose

The Turkish Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) project, which is under construction at Akkuyu in Mersin Province, Turkey, will be the first nuclear plant in the country. The plant was agreed by the government of Turkey and that of Russia back in 2010 by Akkuyu NGS Electrik Uretim Corporation Company and the Russian nuclear construction company known as Atomstroyexport (ASE) to construct a four 1200 MW producer of electricity as identified by Toprak and Dal (n.d). Significant construction took place this year; 2018 and the first unit expected to become operation come the year 2023, and the rest three units to be ready come the year 2025. The purpose of the power plant is to improve the efficiency and security, through decreasing reliance on imported energy. It will be a major driver of the Turkish economy.

Financing of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant

The plant is projected to cost an estimate of 20 billion US dollars according to Toprak and Dal (n.d). The financing of the plant is being provided by Russian investors, with an approximate of 93% of financing originating from the Rosatom auxiliary. Other potential investors are the Turkish organizations such as Elektrik Uretim and Park Teknik. After its completion, the Turkish Electricity Trade and Contract Corporation (TETAS) has assured the buying of the at least 70% of the power that will be generated from the plant.

Legal Grounding of the Plant

The foundation of the nuclear plant will be situated in Mersin Province, the town of Buyukeceli that is surrounded by a coastline. It is said that the town will lose its touristic potentiality, as well as reduced population, and thereafter the township status will be lost altogether. An article by Power-Technology (2018), depict that the plant will be connected to the Black Sea, making it possible for the transportation of heavy machinery to the construction site. It is also located close to centers of electricity consumption like Konya, Mersin, Adana, and Antalya. The place is said to be lowly populated, the reason for it to be located there.

Application and Outcome of Energy Produced

The plant that began this year will begin its first operation in the year 2023. It is meant to source electricity across the country due to its increasing demand and consumption. Recently, according to Toprak and Dal (n.d), Turkey has a deficit of energy and has at least 90% dependency on imported energy. An article known as Power-Technology. (2018), expound on the NPP will produce energy at a low cost compared to other sources of energy and will reduce the emission of carbon into the environment. The Turkish government intends to reduce the 10% employment deficit through the NPP during its construction and after its construction. The plant will also reduce the importation f natural gas whose cost was at 22 billion US dollars in the year 2015.

Conclusion

Turkey has an ever-growing economy resulting from its geopolitical situation connecting the continent of Europe to that of Asia. However, it has a deficit of energy leading to at least 90% of dependency on imported energy in form of oil and natural gas, to steer the economy through the provision of energy. Turkey's historic and recent difficulties with the neighboring states such as Russia, Ukraine, Syria, and Cyprus has rendered the state to unstable political alliances and conflicts at the same time. This year; 2018, the country has begun its first construction of Nuclear Power plant after agreement with Russia that will enable mitigation of inadequate energy, reduce unemployment and dependency on imported energy.

References

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